2016

[barking_iguana]

Someone in a forum I'm on asked, assuming Obama wins in 2012, who are the most likely nominees in 2016.

Since we probably won't be in a war, the 2016 nominees (and especially the eventual winner) will most likely be governors in 2012. I just went over the complete list.

Among Democrats I see Cuomo (NY) and O'Malley (MD) as the most likely, by a considerable margin. Clinton is unlikely to run even if Cuomo doesn't, and even less likely in the expected scenario where he does.

Among Republicans, I see Brownback (KS), Corbett (PA), Haslam (TN), Kasich (OH), and McDonnell (VA) as the most likely possibilities. No, it won't be Christie. Nor would I bet on it being any of the several youngish Washington-based GOP stars, though they're more likely than Christie. I don't totally dismiss Huckabee. I do totally dismiss Palin.

Comments

[avram]

Since we probably won't be in a war

How do you figure?

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Our involvement in Afghanistan will gradually (not terribly gradually) subside. I don't know how many troops there will be there or elsewhere int he world, but Obama is unlikely to get into an adventure that occupies the voter's thoughts to the extent that they turn to another Washington-based politician.