Santorum redux

[barking_iguana]

About the time Perry was getting into the race, I handicapped Santorum as the fourth most likely person to get the nomination, at about 1%. (Actually, somewhere between 0.6 and 1.0.) With Perry's weak performance and Cain's imminent implosion (see http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/11/01/1032172/-Herman-Cains-other-scandal?detail=hide&via=blog_1 for the second scandal that will play as big a role as the first in ending his book tour cum campaign) I'd now put him at more like 5%.

I expect he will get his turn in the spotlight. And unlike the other anti-Romneys, he meets all the entry requirements except campaign money to be a serious candidate. He's not obviously an idiot, though his social positions are rather extreme, his economic positions won't prompt any faction of the party to go all out against him and threaten to leave the party, he knows how and when to open his mouth in a campaign context, and he has experience.

I doubt he'll go over 5% in my estimations, though. He's fairly wooden and I think the relatively conventional anti-Romney forces will resignedly return to Perry rather than switch horses. I doubt the people who can't stand either Romney or Perry will be enough to sustain interest in Santorum for more than a couple of weeks.

Still, he's trading at 0.4% at Intrade. If I had money to throw around, I'd buy with the intent of selling when his bubble gets going.

Comments

[chemoelectric.livejournal.com]

I wouldn’t call him wooden, but bitter and pessimistic. I hesitate to give him lower odds, though, because the pickings are so slim.

[(Anonymous)]

Interesting - the people most likely to trade on Intrade are likely to understate his chances (because of Google).

I should check what Gingrich is trading at. I think he's more likely than Santorum to be the second-last standing.

[bugsybanana.livejournal.com]

He also still has his Google problem.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

You mean the typical Godless, juvenile, and thoroughly unfair attack by the liberal elites that make him a semi-martyr? That problem?

[eyelessgame.livejournal.com]

(I accidentally posted without logging in. The essence of what I said was) It doesn't surprise me that the internet undervalues him (unlikely? yes. Less likely than Pa*l, Bachmann, and Huntsman? No way.) But it's not clear it won't continue to undervalue him. I think Gingrich might be more likely than Santorum to get the next not-Willard vote.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Next, but not last, it seems.