My Predictions: The Good and the Bad
Nov. 7th, 2008 09:09 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
barking_iguanahttp://barking-iguana.livejournal.com/163735.html
The good first. I predicted every single state correctly in the Presidential race. I don't know of anyone else who did. I missed, Omaha going for Obama, though, so my electoral vote prediction was off by one vote.
I predicted the Senate would be 57-41-2. That seems as likely as any other outcome right now. It's 55-40-2 right now, with a recount in Minnesota, a runoff in Georgia, and an ongoing count in Alaska that based on where the votes are coming from looks better than even for the Democrat Begich.
Now the bad. I predicted Republican apathy in safe Obama states that would let Obama run up the popular vote margin and the Democrats run up their House totals more than they did. I called 54 (53.7) to 44 (44.2) in the popular vote and it turned out 53 (52.6 and likely to go up a tenth or two) to 46 (46.1 and likely heading marginally down). Off by three in the margin isn't terrible, but many did better and only the inveterate worry warts did worse (in the other direction).
That's all I included in my prediction here, because it's all I felt I had a good handle on. But at Daily Kos, where the ruled were to also pick the House totals, I went with 263-172. What we got was 255-173 so far with seven seats still undecided. So I was off by somewhere between one and eight seats. At one end of that, I can crow. At the other, it's at least as well as most folks did, but nothing special.
The good first. I predicted every single state correctly in the Presidential race. I don't know of anyone else who did. I missed, Omaha going for Obama, though, so my electoral vote prediction was off by one vote.
I predicted the Senate would be 57-41-2. That seems as likely as any other outcome right now. It's 55-40-2 right now, with a recount in Minnesota, a runoff in Georgia, and an ongoing count in Alaska that based on where the votes are coming from looks better than even for the Democrat Begich.
Now the bad. I predicted Republican apathy in safe Obama states that would let Obama run up the popular vote margin and the Democrats run up their House totals more than they did. I called 54 (53.7) to 44 (44.2) in the popular vote and it turned out 53 (52.6 and likely to go up a tenth or two) to 46 (46.1 and likely heading marginally down). Off by three in the margin isn't terrible, but many did better and only the inveterate worry warts did worse (in the other direction).
That's all I included in my prediction here, because it's all I felt I had a good handle on. But at Daily Kos, where the ruled were to also pick the House totals, I went with 263-172. What we got was 255-173 so far with seven seats still undecided. So I was off by somewhere between one and eight seats. At one end of that, I can crow. At the other, it's at least as well as most folks did, but nothing special.
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no subject
Date: 2008-11-08 02:56 am (UTC)In getting rid of ‘really bad’ Democrats in the House, it was about break even—some were beaten, but new ones won. I think it was Glenn Greenwald who calculated that. That’s a mildly positive result.
no subject
Date: 2008-11-08 06:27 am (UTC)* 57 Democratic Senate seats
* 40 Republican Senate seats
* 253 Democratic House seats
* 181 Republican House seats
* 393 Obama Electoral Votes
* 145 McCain Electoral Votes
* 52.5 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
* 46.0 McCain Popular Vote Percentage
If you thought there would be a runoff in GA you were supposed to
leave that contest off. Also I thought there was some stipulation
in the rules about the House that left it at 434, not 435.
no subject
Date: 2008-11-08 06:35 am (UTC)I guess I didn't take the time to read the rules well enough. The 434 is probably LA-04, which was delayed by Gustav. They'll be voting in December. I predicted based on January 3, not November 5.