Ugh.

[barking_iguana]

There is nothing that would make Sarah Palin more appealing to moderate women, nothing, than for the rumors currently flying to be true and for her to be attacked for it. And no, I won't repeat the rumors and I'm asking you not to, either.

If true, this is not a scandal that will destroy her, it is why she was put on the ticket in the first place.

Comments

[eyelessgame.livejournal.com]

I really think nothing is to be gained by personal attacks or personal peccadillos. She's a conventional conservative-evangelical global-warming-denying anti-abortion big-business Republican. Family, gender, even silly employee scandals are all irrelevant to that.

The great weakness of Democrats - that we persist in attacking the opponent's positions, not their character - ought to render us unlikely to fall into that trap.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Well, I think abuse of authority, which is what I think you're calling silly employment scandals, is a proper focus. Especially when McCain=Bush is an important overall theme.

[chemoelectric.livejournal.com]

I wouldn’t worry too much; shove a sock down Michael Moore’s throat and we’ll be okay.

Another thing going around is Palin giggling at a cancer-surviving opponent being called a "bitch" and a "cancer". At least in this case it is not a rumor but a matter of record, and it fits nicely with McCain’s record.

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

At the moment, I'm pretty thoroughly convinced that Palin was put on the ticket because McCain/Rove think women are too stupid to notice that Palin isn't Clinton.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Well, since so many weren't supporting the real Clinton, but rather an idealized The-Woman-Who-Will-Be-President, I could se why McCain would think that's worth a shot with some of them.

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

I guess he missed the spot of infighting about how picking Sibelius would be an insult to Clinton and evidence that the Democrats don't "get it".

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Yes. I think there's some Jane Pauley vs, Deborah Norville kind of backlash going on. Palin is polling better with men than with women. Perhaps that was intended all along. Of course, regardless of qualifications or lack of qualifications, picking a beauty queen was probably supposed to get some male voters for non-policy reasons.

[space-geek-ken.livejournal.com]

Personally, I think the "ethics abuse" bit is a defensive landmine against the far lefty attack weasels.

Stripped to its essence, it comes down to asking the DPS director why a cop is still on duty after DUIs with the squad car, a history of domestic calls in rural Alaska, and his 11 year old stepson being checked out by a doctor for being tasered. When the DPS director failed to give a credible answer - twice - he was replaced.

When a staffer said "By the way, the woman in question is the governor's sister in law, and the cop in question is her estranged ex husband", the staffer was suspended without pay for two months, within 48 hours of making the call.

The cop in question that she's indirectly 'harassing' had a 10 day suspension handed down after all this broke, that was cut to 5 days by the union rep.

It's there SOLELY so someone is dumb enough to make it an issue. Much like the other rumor you're asking nobody to mention.

On the Rumor That Shall Not Be Aired, ask yourself this - let's assume every word of it is true. How does it do anything but strengthen her appeal to middle class women? Family Values isn't about living in Ward Cleaver's Universe. It's about helping your family when they make mistakes, no matter the personal cost to you for doing so.

This year's Republican ticket is a suicide run. They don't want the White House or Congress for the next two years; they just want to lose without destroying the party. Far better to be the party of 'outsiders' when the secondary effects of Bubblenomics hit. I'm figuring Palin is there *specifically* to prevent McCain from turning up numbers so bad that they make Bob Dole's look good.

Current odds on an Obama win? About 70/30. Prior to Palin? About 85/15. McCain wants to make a decent showing in his loss to prevent the Republican party from imploding.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Hi, Ken. Glad you found me here. Responding to your email was on the list of things to do before school starts tomorrow, but the list was long.

I see your point of view on 'troopergatge' but I'm not convinced it trumps other aspects. Here's how it's playing on Alaska TV. I think it adds to her not-ready-for-prime-time aura.

Fortunately (from my point of view), the baby thing has been shown to be almost certainly false and is being dropped quickly enough that I don't think it will do the Obama campaign real harm. Of course, the campaign itself was never involved in spreading this rumor, but involvement of more partisan media types and bloggers could have started to hurt, as could continued involvement on the part of the relatively anonymous bloggers who were already doing it, if it had continued while being addressed by Palin.

As for the suicide run, bullshit. They're not giving up power voluntarily. The reasoning you give is how politicians console themselves to the inevitable (or merely likely, in this case) but not how they actually make decision.

I agree that picking Palin was the right strategic move for the Republicans, though. It lowers the expected value of the vote percentage, but raises the standard deviation by more. Hence, a good strategic move when you're losing. Except she really is inexperienced enough so that she'd have to be exceptionally able to not be dangerously out of place if she became President. It's possible that she really is that able, but I'm pretty sure the McCain campaign did not put the effort into satisfying even themselves that she is. But I suppose if you're willing to run Dan Quayle, Palin is par for the course.

Suicide Runs

[space-geek-ken.livejournal.com]

Hell, the Bush-2000 campaign was supposed to be a suicide run. Had it not been for Nader, your side would've had Gore in office. It should not have come down to Florida at all.

Running Shrub against the VP of the most effective Democratic president in nearly two generations? No, that was basically paying a favor back to Bush senior by the GOP apparatchiks.

Running a tired old man on the heels of a Republican president who only dreams of Nixon's approval ratings? With bow shocks from the housing crash hitting in mid 2010, and the entitlements crash in 2013/2014?

Uh uh. The smart money for the Republicans is to be the opposition party for the next decade and let the Democrats take the fall for this.

And as evidence that McCain is doing this to "make a good show" of it, take a look at the number of campaign stops and appearances and appearance lengths he's put in since becoming the presumptive nominee back in May, compared to how many Bush made in 2004.

McCain knows he's going to lose, barring a Ralph Nader type miracle, Clinton's not going to provide him with one...so he has to make sure he loses without destroying the party.

Re: Suicide Runs

[chemoelectric.livejournal.com]

The suicide run theory seems to me silly. It’s silly in general, but even worse it depends on the assumption that John McCain is generous and humble.

[chemoelectric.livejournal.com]

It looks as if the rumors, followed by the news of Palin’s daughter’s family condition, are developing into another aspect of the story that John McCain did very little research before choosing Palin. Yesterday I read that there was evidence nobody had searched the newspaper records in Wasilla; there was nothing interesting there, but that’s not the point.

(‘Not showing’ was never good evidence. Happens to teenagers and heavy people all the time.)