barking_iguana | A prediction, finally.

People have been bugging me for months to say who I think will win the Democratic nomination. My response was that if you think you can reasonably predict for either of them, then I think you're underestimating how close it is. It's still close, but I now think one of the legs of the Clinton campaign will likely be chopped out from under her in the next few weeks.

To balance the faddish momentum that Obama's got going for him, Clinton has been able to rely on organizational support that she (not Bill) has built up over the past 10 years. But the calendar that her campaign used to tout as making her victory inevitable looks like it will end up finishing her off.

The problem is that nobody wants the nomination to be decided by an ugly credentials battle over the putative Michigan and Florida delegations. An 'ordinary' brokered convention would be bad enough, but would at least have several redeeming qualities. But a floor fight over who gets to vote, with the clear rules on one side and the interests of two critical swing states on the other would be a disaster.

The only way to avoid that if there is if the nomination is pretty much a foregone conclusion by the time the convention starts. No candidate will have enough pledged delegates to claim the nomination outright. But if either candidate runs the table (or comes close enough) from here on out, the unpledged ex officio delegates (IMO, "superdelegate" is a misleading term) will move with near unanimity to anoint a champion.

If the remaining states were to all vote today, I think the delegate count would slightly favor Obama, but not by nearly enough. Maybe not at all. That's because although Obama will continue to win small and medium states, Clinton has the advantage in Texas and probably Ohio, which come later.

In this case, though, later is too late. If Obama can post convincing wins in the Potomac primary Tuesday and continue to win next week, it seems to me that election day organizational support for Clinton in Texas and Ohio on March 24 can be expected to dry up, negating Clinton's necessary advantage in GOTV. Should that happen, Obama would win Ohio and probably come close in Texas.

If she still has money then, Clinton wouldn't have to give up. But she would need a big surprise win in Pennsylvania on April 22 to hold on to her early endorsements from ex officio delegates.

I'm not saying I'm sure it will unfold this way. If this were the Republican Party of any year except 2008, we could be confident that the powers that be would find a way to avoid an ugly convention, and since this is the clearest path to a unified party, it's what we could strongly expect.

The Democratic Party, since 1968, has eschewed the kind of backroom deals that can smooth things over. Mostly, that's good. But when the popular will expresses no clear preference, things will be decided by deals one way or the other. One way is to have it done ahead of time, when some feeling will be hurt. The other way is to have it on national TV, when everybody's feelings will be hurt. The question is whether the structure and culture of the Democratic Party will allow rival campaigns to come together this way.

And it is an open question. I'd only give Obama about a 60% chance at the nomination. But that's the first time I've had anyone over 53%, so I'm putting my prediction out there.