Re-Thinking Obama vs. Edwards

[barking_iguana]

1. Obama has American Idol appeal. The story I heard from the woman I shared a cab to the airport from Yearly Kos with is typical. (She's not affillitated with the campaign.) She's got a friend who votes based on personal appeal, who always ends up voting for the winner: Bush twice, Democratic Governor Kaine (they're from Virginia), etc. The friend, like so many others I'm hearing of and occasionally running into, is supporting Obama.
2. A new poll in Iowa shows Obama running third among Republicans. Granted, that's at under 10% and is partly because the Republican field is so unappetizing.
3. I am 98% sure that Obama's general outlook is as he presents it to be. I'm only 70% sure Edwards' is. Edwards has dissembled about how he supposedly told Kerry not to concede. His voting record in the Senate was OK, but not nearly as good as he now presents himself to be. Granted, you some playing toward the middle is to be expected when you're from the Carolinas and Edwards has been walking the walk (despite the stupid haircut story) on economic issues for two years. I'm not saying Edwards is bad, just that against the stiff competition of Obama, I may have judged too quickly.
4. Speaking of Virginia governors, Obama will run into the Wilder Effect. That's where African-American politicians do less well on election day than they do in preceding polls. But the size of the Wilder Effect has shrunk over the years since Wilder did manage to squeak out a victory as chief executive of a southern state. On the one hand, the effect in a presidential race may be bigger. But on the other, Obama, with his polyglot roots, presents a chance for voters to 'prove' to themselves that they're not racist, without actually having to approve of someone who has too many African-American cultural markers. To assume the effect is bigger than it is, and to select candidates on an exaggerated sense of how bigotry will affect the candidates, is to strongly contribute to sustaining that bigotry. (But to ignore the effect to the extent that it does exist is not doing favors to anyone except the Republicans.)
5. In 2004, we ended up with Kerry, largely because a lot of early primary/caucus voters who didn't especially like Kerry thought he was the most electable. He may have been no less inept than Dean would have been in the fishbowl, but we wouldn't have done any worse if people had trusted their own instincts and not so strongly assumed that they were too different from the voting population as a whole. That seems to be the message that Democrats most need to learn, in general, to get over our Political Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. And my personal instinct is that Edwards would be very good and Obama would be fantastic!

So I'm not sure which of the two of them I want to be nominated. If when New Jersey votes, the race is basically down to either of them and Clinton, I'd happily support whichever of them is still standing. But if I had to vote today, I think I'd vote for Obama.

Comments

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

I would love to see a woman have a viable shot at the White House, but there is no way I'm voting for Hillary. She's insincere, scared, and condescending. Too many people despise her. And I'm really not too keen on having the fourth President in a row be from the same two families. My paranoia kicks in and I expect another Bush to be running in '12, and then we have nearly forty years of control by two families.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Yoy wouldn't vote for Hilary in the general, if she gets the nomination, against any of the yahoos trying for the Republican nomination?

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

I don't believe Hillary is willing or able to even, say, get a pro-Roe Justice confirmed if she's elected. Since the healthcare debacle, she doesn't put anything on the line for what she believes in. And, way more than either of the Johns, I don't think Hillary can win anywhere outside the Northeast.

I don't think my vote matters in the general election, although it would be more likely to matter if Hillary's the Democratic nominee than any other, simply because my state hasn't been close enough in the popular vote to affect the Electoral College vote since I moved here. I'm sick and tired of voting for the lesser of two evils, having that evil claim a mandate, and then not act on the reasons I voted for them over their competition. I don't want a Democrat to win if that Democrat isn't going to be able to accomplish anything positive, because that only fuels the sense people seem to have (If They Only Listened to Us) that at least the Republicans make them feel warm and fuzzy, even if neither party actually helps anyone real. I don't want another Democratic administration that cuts health care, signs free trade agreements without worker protection, and ignores education to keep up the tradition of Republicans ransacking the government and Democrats helping them in a spirit of bipartisanship.

[barking-iguana.livejournal.com]

Here's some food for thought: 13 of the last 15 Supreme Court appointments have been made by Republican Presidents. Ginsburg and Breyer (the 2 appointed by a Clinton) may not be fall-over-backwards-on-your-chair wonderful, but Ginsburg's pretty good and Breyer's a heck of a lot better than the median republican appointee.

And if Democrats control Congress while any of the possible Democrats is appointing someone, pro-Roe is nearly certain. Actually, even with a Republican Congress, I think it's highly likely, despite my general agreement with you about Hilary's character. Pr-Roe just isn't a hard standard to meet. The Republicans have had to go out of their way to find nominees who aren't, and have sometimes failed at that.

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

Pro-Roe is not difficult, and I still don't think Hillary would make any effort if effort was needed. She also seems to be allergic to admitting mistakes or defending her reasoning for decisions that didn't pan out, neither of which I find any better than Republican behavior.

I don't like Hillary. I don't think she has any realistic chance of being elected. I don't see any reason why I should vote for her. If my vote makes a difference in Hillary's Electoral College count, Hillary is about to pull a Mondale, since I can't see my state going for a Republican while a significant number of other states are voting for Hillary.