Bahrain looking better, for now

Kristof reports:

BAHRAIN — There’s delirious joy in the center of Bahrain right now. People power has prevailed, at least temporarily, over a regime that repeatedly used deadly force to try to crush a democracy movement. Pro-democracy protesters have retaken the Pearl Roundabout – the local version of Tahrir Square – from the government. On a spot where blood was shed several days ago there are now vast throngs kissing the earth, chanting slogans, cheering, honking and celebrating. People handed me flowers and the most common quotation I heard was: “It’s unbelievable!”

When protesters announced that they were going to try to march on the Pearl Roundabout this afternoon, I had a terrible feeling. King Hamad of Bahrain has repeatedly shown he is willing to use brutal force to crush protesters, including live fire just yesterday on unarmed, peaceful protesters who were given no warning. I worried the same thing would happen today. I felt sick as I saw the first group cross into the circle.

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A democratic Bahrain will also put pressure on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia has been notoriously repressive toward the Shiite population in its eastern region, and the racist contempt among some Sunnis in the Gulf toward Shiites is breathtaking. If Shiites come to rule the banking capital of the region (as well, now, as Iraq), that will help change the dynamic.

If you only look at factors internal to Bahrain, the prospects for a stable democracy there may be good; better than in Egypt, anyway and I'm more optimistic about Egypt than most anyone else who expresses doubts. But Bahrain's problems are *not* only internal. It's a very small country whose local economy is tied to it's much larger neighbor, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has long been fearful of a Shi'ite awakening in its eastern Gulf Coast region. To prevent that, they may now play as destructive a role in Bahrain as Syria plays in Lebanon and as Turkey threatened to do in Kurdish northern Iraq.

The actual bias of the traditional media

Even more than a desire not to offend their advertisers and to pander to the views of their audience, they like news. That is, they like events to be interpreted in their most newsworthy and dramatic fashion. Consider the effect in Egypt coverage.

Most of the media has been portraying the revolution as simply a democratizing event, without serious consideration that despite the intent of most of the leaders and participants in the demonstrations, things may not go well. The revolution is a triumph of good over evil.

Only the hard right, the folks who think that anyone who's not White is unfit to rule themselves, have been dealing with the risks, and they don't present them as risks, but as a certainty. Mubarak was a proper toady of the West, and so was good. The revolution is certain to bring to power the Muslim Brotherhood and the MB is certain to be as bad as Iran, so it is a triumph of evil over good.

Either way, the talking heads convince not only us, but more importantly themselves, that this is a critical moment in history. It excites them to think they're participating, even if only remotely, in such a moment. And of course it justifies their notion that it's incumbent on us to watch them.